Will the S&P 500 close down at least 2% on the October 28 Fed decision day?

Question

This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 price index's official closing level on October 28, 2026 is at least 2.00% lower than its official closing level on October 27. The Federal Reserve decision provides the event context, but the market measures the entire US trading day's close-to-close change, not only movement after the policy statement.

Use the S&P 500 price-return index in US dollars published by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Do not substitute the total-return index, S&P 500 futures, SPY, an i

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 81%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 19%.