Will SPARC achieve plasma energy gain above 1 in its first D–T campaign?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Commonwealth Fusion Systems reports a measured plasma fusion gain Q greater than 1 in at least one discharge of SPARC’s first officially identified deuterium–tritium experimental campaign. Q is fusion power divided by the external heating power delivered to the plasma, not electricity sold to the grid.

Hydrogen-only commissioning, simulations, a design target, magnet tests and results from another reactor do not qualify. Use the best experimentally measured Q of

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 57%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 43%.