Will the confirmed death toll from the 2026 Nepal–China Himalayan flood reach 1,500 by September 15, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if the cumulative confirmed death toll directly attributable to the August 26, 2026 Himalayan glacier-collapse disaster and subsequent flash floods, debris flows and landslides in Nepal and China's Tibet Autonomous Region reaches 1,500 or more people at any time on or before 23:59:59 CEST on September 15, 2026.

For resolution purposes, deaths officially attributed to the disaster by Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) or other comp

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 61%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 39%.