Will Iran carry out another confirmed attack on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz before September 1, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if, after the market opens and before the resolution deadline, Iranian armed forces conduct at least one confirmed kinetic attack against, or forcibly seize control of, a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or its immediate maritime approaches.

A qualifying attack includes a missile, drone, projectile, mine or other weapon launched or deployed by Iranian forces that directly strikes a commercial vessel. A forcible seizure or boarding that results in Iranian forces

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 59%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 41%.