Will Russia publicly accept a Black Sea attacks moratorium before September 15, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if, before September 15, 2026, the Russian government publicly accepts a bilateral or reciprocal moratorium, truce, ceasefire or equivalent arrangement with Ukraine that substantially suspends attacks against civilian vessels, civilian ports or civilian maritime infrastructure in the Black Sea.

The acceptance must be publicly communicated by the Kremlin, Russian Foreign Ministry, Russian Defence Ministry or another Russian government authority competent to announce the

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 73%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 27%.