Will IBM publish an experimental quantum-advantage claim at its November 11–13 developer conference?

Question

This market resolves YES if IBM releases, during its November 11–13, 2026 Quantum Developer Conference, a new experimental result explicitly claiming quantum computational advantage over the best classical baseline identified in the associated technical paper. The result must use a physical quantum processor and name the task, classical comparator and measured performance. A roadmap promise, simulation of a quantum device or a statement that a chip has more qubits does not qualify. IBM must publ

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 59%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 41%.