Will the EU clear UniCredit’s Commerzbank takeover without an in-depth investigation?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the European Commission clears UniCredit's notified acquisition of control over Commerzbank at the initial merger-review stage without opening a Phase II in-depth investigation. Both unconditional clearance and clearance subject to commitments qualify. The decision must concern this acquisition of control, not an unrelated minority-shareholding transaction.

The relevant event is the Commission's first substantive disposition of the notified case whose preliminary

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 68%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 32%.