Will the official death toll from the 2026 Colombia earthquake reach 500?

Question

This market resolves to YES if the officially confirmed cumulative death toll directly attributable to the magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck western Colombia on August 10, 2026 reaches or exceeds 500 people by August 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM COT.

Deaths will count only when officially attributed to the earthquake or its direct consequences by Colombian national or regional authorities.

Deaths caused by building collapses, landslides, earthquake-triggered infrastructure failures or injuries dir

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 55%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 45%.