Will the UN still project at least 2.8°C of warming under current climate policies in its October report?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the United Nations Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 gives a central projected global warming level of at least 2.8 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline under its current-policies scenario. The report is listed for publication on October 21, 2026. Exactly 2.8°C qualifies; a central estimate below 2.8°C does not, even if the upper end of its uncertainty interval exceeds the threshold.

Use the headline end-of-century projection for poli

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 61%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 39%.