Will the FDA clear Merck and Daiichi’s new lung-cancer drug in its October 10 review?

Question

This market resolves YES if the FDA grants US marketing approval to ifinatamab deruxtecan, also called I-DXd, for adults with previously treated extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer in the current review carrying an October 10, 2026 target action date. The qualifying decision must concern the Merck/Daiichi Sankyo application for patients whose disease progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy. A label narrowed to a subset of that population qualifies.

This is not a market on all lung

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 76%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 24%.