Will Warhol’s Alexander the Great reach a €2.5 million hammer price on October 23?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Andy Warhol’s Alexander the Great, lot 128 achieves a hammer price of at least €2,500,000 in Sotheby’s Surrealism and Its Legacy sale in Paris on 23 October 2026. Sotheby’s estimates this particular painting at €1.8–2.5 million; the contract tests the upper estimate, not the combined value of its Warhol offerings. The threshold is inclusive: an exact match qualifies. The hammer price is the winning bid accepted by the auctioneer, before the buyer's premium, taxes,

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 57%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 43%.