Will France’s Court of Cassation overturn Le Pen’s ineligibility in the parliamentary-assistants case?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the criminal chamber of France’s Court of Cassation, deciding Marine Le Pen’s appeal against the Paris Court of Appeal’s July 7,2026 judgment in the European parliamentary-assistants case, sets aside the provision imposing her ineligibility for elected office.

A total cassation that expressly includes the ineligibility sentence qualifies, whether with or without remand. A partial cassation confined to a fine, damages, another defendant or an unrelated count does

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 28%.