Will Anthropic lead Arena’s text-model ranking on October 31?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Anthropic owns the highest-ranked eligible model in Arena’s overall text leaderboard at 16:00 UTC on October 31, 2026.

Inspect individual Models with adjustments disabled. Exclude AutoEval entries. Compare rank first, then the full-precision score; if still equal, alphabetise company names. The display’s provider attribution determines ownership. A model announced elsewhere but absent from this table cannot win. Coding, image and aggregate benchmark tables are di

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 79%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 21%.