Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Question

This market resolves YES if the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for calendar year 2026 is greater than both the 2025 value and 1.28°C, following the resolution definition used by Kalshi.

It resolves NO otherwise.

Monthly records, Copernicus data, NOAA estimates or declarations by media organisations will not determine resolution.

Only the final applicable annual NASA GISS dataset will count.

Subsequent historical revisions made af

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 69%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 31%.