Will Reform UK lead Labour in the first YouGov voting-intention poll of January 2027?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Reform UK has a strictly higher published Westminster voting-intention percentage than Labour in YouGov’s first standard Great Britain voting-intention poll released during January 2027.

Compare the headline weighted voting-intention figures after the pollster’s normal exclusions, not raw preferences or seat projections. Great Britain excludes Northern Ireland; a regional poll cannot substitute. A tie resolves NO. Conservative or Green support is not added to eit

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 51%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 49%.