Will the federal court approve Meta’s landmark U.S. states social-media settlement without reducing the guaranteed $12.7 billion payment?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the federal court overseeing the U.S. states' social-media litigation against Meta formally approves, accepts or enters the announced settlement while preserving Meta's guaranteed payment obligation of at least $12.7 billion.

The relevant amount is the guaranteed component of the settlement announced in August 2026. The additional contingent amount of approximately $5 billion does not need to become guaranteed for YES resolution.

Changes to payment timing, alloc

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 28%.