Will the December 4 US jobs report show that payrolls fell in November?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a strictly negative seasonally adjusted monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November 2026 in the first Employment Situation release covering that month. The publication is scheduled for December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. A loss of one thousand jobs qualifies; a reported change of zero does not. This asks whether the initial national jobs report shows a contraction, not whether the unemployment

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 64%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 36%.