Will irregular land arrivals in Ceuta fall in the first half of November compared with the first half of October?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Spanish Interior Ministry records strictly fewer irregular arrivals by land into Ceuta during 1–15 November 2026 than during 1–15 October 2026, using the Ceuta land-entry row of its fortnightly irregular-immigration reports. Equality or a higher November count resolves NO. The question concerns recorded new arrivals, not the number of people remaining in the city or the number returned to Morocco.

Derive each half-month count by subtracting the preceding mont

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 55%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 45%.