Will Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula by less than four percentage points in the October 25 runoff?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Flávio Bolsonaro receives more valid presidential votes than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s second round scheduled for 25 October 2026, and his lead is strictly below four percentage points of the total valid presidential vote. A narrow victory is required: a Lula victory, an exact tie, or a Bolsonaro lead of exactly four points or more resolves NO. This differs from merely predicting the election winner.

Calculate the margin as 100 × (Bolsonaro votes − Lu

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 51%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 49%.