Will Euclid DR1 report 3-sigma evidence that dark energy changes with time?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Euclid Collaboration reports a significance of at least 3 sigma against constant dark energy in the principal cosmological analysis associated with its first main data release, DR1, tentatively scheduled for 21 October 2026. The result must test a time-varying dark-energy model against a cosmological constant and explicitly state the statistical significance. Exactly 3 sigma qualifies.

A baseline combination of Euclid DR1 with named external data qualifies if

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 68%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 32%.