Will Reform UK win the most seats in England’s May 6 local elections?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Reform UK wins strictly more seats than every other individual party in the scheduled principal-council elections in England on May 6, 2027.

Count seats won in this election round, not net gains, councils controlled, national vote share or all existing councillors. Include district, county, unitary and metropolitan principal councils that actually hold scheduled elections; exclude parish councils, mayoralties, devolved legislatures and unrelated by-elections. Use

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 46%.