Will Tarcísio de Freitas win São Paulo’s governorship in the October 4 first round?

Question

This market resolves YES if the final official result of the October 4, 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial first round declares Tarcísio de Freitas elected without a runoff. He must meet the legally required absolute majority of valid votes; blank and invalid ballots are not valid votes. Finishing first but proceeding to a second round resolves NO, even if he later wins the governorship. A different candidate from his party does not substitute for him. Withdrawal or exclusion of Tarcísio before the fi

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 68%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 32%.