Will ESA’s reusable Themis rocket land upright on its first free-flight hop?

Question

This market will resolve YES if ESA or ArianeGroup confirms that the Themis T1H demonstrator completes its first untethered powered hop from Esrange with a controlled upright landing on its landing legs.

A free flight must lift the vehicle entirely clear of ground support; a captive hot-fire or suspended test does not count as the first attempt. The vehicle must remain upright for at least sixty seconds after touchdown, with no destructive explosion or collapse in that interval. Minor damage is

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 64%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 36%.