Will the Met Office forecast at least 1.7°C of global warming for 2027 in its annual outlook?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the UK Met Office's first formal annual forecast of global mean temperature for calendar year 2027 gives a central estimate of at least 1.70°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Exactly 1.70°C qualifies. The contract concerns the forecast, not the global temperature eventually measured in 2027 and not a claim that the Paris Agreement's long-term threshold has already been permanently exceeded.

Use the central estimate explicitly published in the first de

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 46%.