Will NOAA classify the 2026 El Niño as “very strong” during October–December?

Question

This market resolves YES if NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ultimately classifies the October–November–December 2026 El Niño strength as “very strong.”

Resolution will use NOAA CPC’s official Relative Oceanic Niño Index strength classification for the OND 2026 three-month season.

A preliminary forecast or an individual weekly Niño 3.4 reading does not independently determine the result. The final seasonal classification must meet NOAA’s official “very strong” category.

If NOAA classifies the

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 77%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 23%.