Will the US trade deficit remain above $100 billion in the November 4 report?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the joint BEA and Census international trade release scheduled for November 4, 2026 reports a September 2026 U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit strictly greater than $100.0 billion. Use the seasonally adjusted headline balance on a balance-of-payments basis. A balance of minus $100.1 billion qualifies; minus $100.0 billion does not. A trade surplus or a smaller deficit resolves NO.

The relevant measure covers both goods and services with all trading partners.

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 52%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 48%.