Will Democrats win the House popular vote by 8–10 points in the November 3 midterms?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Democratic Party's nationwide share of valid votes for voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives exceeds the Republican Party's share by at least 8.000 but less than 10.000 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election. The lower boundary is included and the upper boundary is excluded. A margin of exactly eight points is YES; exactly ten points is NO.

Use the national party totals in the official election statistics compiled by the Clerk

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 71%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 29%.