Will the January 4 Talbott trial produce a permanent injunction against Trump’s transgender military ban?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the United States District Court for the District of Columbia enters a permanent injunction after the merits trial in Talbott v. United States, case 1:25-cv-00240, scheduled to begin January 4, 2027, that prohibits enforcement of the challenged transgender military-service exclusion against the certified plaintiff class. The injunction must provide substantive protection from exclusion or discharge because of transgender status under the challenged executive order

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 67%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 33%.