Will LIGO’s 2026–27 observing run produce a surviving neutron-star-collision alert?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration issues at least one public gravitational-wave alert from its IR 1 observing run whose latest official classification seven days after the first alert assigns a probability strictly above 50% to a binary neutron-star merger and has not been retracted.

Use the BNS field in the official public-alert classification for the same superevent. An NSBH(neutron star–black hole) classification does not count. Exactly 50% is insufficient. T

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 56%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 44%.