Will US sanctions still allow the ICC to pay its staff after the April 7 licence deadline?

Question

This market will resolve YES if a general US legal authorisation allowing ordinary salary payments by the International Criminal Court remains effective immediately after 00:01 America/New_York on April 7, 2027, the expiry specified in OFAC General License 13 issued on October 9, 2026. This is a test of the legal position at that deadline, not whether a bank actually processes a payment or whether the Court has enough money.

YES requires an extension of General License 13, a replacement general

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 46%.