Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the cash rate by exactly 25 basis points at its September 2026 meeting?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board announces, as the monetary-policy decision resulting from its scheduled September 28–29, 2026 meeting, an increase of exactly 25 basis points in the official cash rate target relative to the cash rate target in effect immediately before that decision.

Based on the 4.35% cash rate target in effect when this market was created, an increase to exactly 4.60% at the qualifying September meeting would resolve the ma

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 66%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 34%.