Will the U.S. sanction a major Chinese bank over Iran-related transactions by September 11, 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if, between market creation and September 11, 2026 at 11:59 AM ET, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, OFAC, the White House or another competent U.S. government authority formally imposes sanctions, blocking measures or secondary-sanctions restrictions on at least one major mainland Chinese commercial bank specifically because of transactions, financial services or other material support connected to Iran.

For purposes of this market, a "major Chinese bank" means

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 62%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 38%.