Will fewer than five commercial vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before September 1, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if the designated AIS vessel-tracking source records fewer than five qualifying commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz during any single UTC calendar day after this market opens and through August 31, 2026.

Military vessels, fishing vessels, pleasure craft, tugboats and other non-commercial traffic will not count.

A vessel must complete a qualifying transit through the predefined Strait of Hormuz monitoring zone to count.

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 71%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 29%.