Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish first in the October 9–10 French socialist primary?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the organisers of Choisir 2027 certify that Raphaël Glucksmann received strictly more valid votes than every other candidate in the first round scheduled for October 9–10, 2026.

This is the socialist and social-democratic presidential primary, not the French presidential election and not any separately organised left-wing primary. Only the first-round individual vote totals count. An absolute majority is unnecessary. Advancing to the second round, winning that la

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 82%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 18%.