Will Europe’s 2026–27 winter be at least 1.50°C warmer than its 1991–2020 average?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Copernicus Climate Change Service reports a European-land average surface-air-temperature anomaly of at least 1.50°C for the boreal winter December 2026 through February 2027, relative to the 1991–2020 winter average, in its ERA 5 assessment.

Use the European land region and seasonal average defined by C3S. Do not substitute the European Union alone, a single country, worldwide temperature, a single month, sea-surface temperature or a different climatological bas

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 28%.