Will another tanker carrying Saudi crude be attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if, after September 4, 2026 and on or before September 30, 2026, at least one commercial tanker carrying Saudi-origin crude oil is physically struck by a missile, drone, projectile, explosive device, naval mine or another hostile weapon while navigating in the Strait of Hormuz or its immediately adjacent maritime approaches.

For YES, there must be credible confirmation both that the vessel suffered a physical impact from a hostile action and that it was carrying Sau

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 66%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 34%.