Will China announce another major Taiwan encirclement exercise before October 1, 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if, after this market opens and before October 1, 2026, the People's Liberation Army or China's Ministry of National Defense officially announces a new major military exercise explicitly intended to surround, encircle, blockade, isolate or conduct multi-directional operations around Taiwan.

For the purposes of this market, the exercise must involve multiple operational areas, directions or military components around Taiwan and must be officially described, or unambi

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 69%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 31%.