Will Brent crude post a $5 daily settlement increase during September?

Question

This market will resolve YES if on a September ICE session the front-month Brent settlement is $5.00 or more above the preceding settlement for that same contract.  Exactly $5 qualifies and consecutive trading settlements are compared even across a weekend or holiday.

The market resolves NO if every same-contract daily increase is below $5 or apparent jumps arise only from changing contract month.  Intraday highs and spot prices are excluded. At rollover, compare the new contract with its own

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 53%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 47%.