Will the U.S. and China announce a tariff-cutting agreement at the November 18–19 APEC summit?

Question

This market resolves YES if the United States and China publicly announce, during the November 18–19, 2026 APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen, a mutually accepted agreement that reduces at least one existing additional U.S. country-wide tariff on Chinese goods by ten percentage points or more. Compare that tariff’s stated rate immediately before the summit with the agreed new rate; a relative ten-percent reduction is not ten percentage points. A temporary reduction qualifies if its announced durat

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 42%.