Will at least one person be injured in incidents related to attempted irregular crossings into Ceuta on August 15, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if at least one person suffers a physical injury requiring medical treatment as a direct result of an attempted or completed irregular border crossing from Morocco into Ceuta during August 15, 2026.

A qualifying injured person may be a migrant, civilian, Spanish or Moroccan police officer, Guardia Civil officer, member of the armed forces, emergency worker or other person directly involved in the relevant incident.

For resolution, the injury must be officially reported

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 42%.