Will the CDC report at least 4,000 U.S. measles cases in 2026 as of October 8?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports 4,000 or more confirmed measles cases in its national cumulative 2026 case total for the reporting cutoff corresponding to October 8, 2026.

The market resolves NO if the controlling CDC total for that cutoff is 3,999 cases or fewer.

Exactly 4,000 confirmed cases resolves YES.

The relevant figure is the national cumulative total displayed by the CDC under “Measles cases in 2026” on its official

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 52%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 48%.