Will Barcelona’s October 31 Blocus disturbances lead to at least 50 arrests that night?

Question

This market will resolve YES if at least fifty distinct people are arrested within Barcelona municipality between 00:00 October 31 and 06:00 November 1, 2026, Europe/Madrid time, and Mossos d'Esquadra or Barcelona's Guàrdia Urbana explicitly attributes those arrests to the security operation or disturbances associated with the October 31 online Blocus calls. Exactly fifty qualifies. The October 24 arrests are historical context and never count toward this threshold.

The published calls provide

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 57%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 43%.