Will Ben-Gvir’s party win at least 10 seats in Israel’s October 27 election?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the official allocation of seats for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election awards at least ten seats to the electoral list headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and representing Otzma Yehudit, also called Jewish Power or Jewish Strength. Exactly ten seats qualifies. Nine or fewer resolves NO.

Count seats, not vote share, coalition seats, ministerial appointments or recommendations to the president. A joint list counts in full only if Ben-Gvir is its principal candidate

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 59%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 41%.