Will DESI’s full five-year results report 5-sigma evidence for changing dark energy?

Question

This market will resolve YES if DESI’s first official cosmological analysis of its completed five-year survey reports evidence at or above 5.0 sigma against constant dark energy in favour of an evolving-dark-energy model.

Use papers formally released by the DESI collaboration as the first full five-year dark-energy result. A combined analysis with external supernova, cosmic-microwave-background or other data counts if the collaboration itself reports the significance for an explicitly identifie

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 74%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 26%.