Will October 2026 be the hottest October in Copernicus’s global record?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Copernicus Climate Change Service identifies October 2026 as the warmest October, alone or officially tied for warmest, in its global ERA5 surface-air-temperature series. The comparison is against all earlier Octobers in that same series. A statement that the month was merely unusually warm, the second-warmest October or the warmest October in Europe is insufficient and resolves NO.

Use the October monthly global mean, not one hot day, sea-surface temperature, a

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 68%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 32%.