Will Moody’s downgrade France in its 23 October 2026 review?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Moody’s lowers France’s long-term sovereign issuer credit rating in the scheduled review of 23 October 2026, compared with its rating immediately before that review. The current reference is Aa3, but if an extraordinary earlier action changes it, compare with the rating actually in force immediately before this scheduled decision. A downgrade must move at least one full notch.

A negative outlook, watch placement, downgrade of a French bank or region, or lowering

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 42%.